Pay Attention Because This Is Important: Your Debt Is A Problem Because You Can’t Print Money. The Government Can. QED.
Pete Peterson is the Republican functionary, founder of Blackstone, and recipient of Timmeh’s Bear Stearns largess, who has a hardon for eliminating that little bit of a social safety net that exists for Americans. He’s also a world-class asshole:
But what did we get when we presented the idea to Peterson and Schwarzman? We explained why we came to see them. We got 40 minutes (I kid you not, I checked my watch) of name-dropping by Peterson, of all the senior folks he knew in our client’s country. But that wasn’t why our client came to see him; had he bothered to listen, the matter at hand was in the US.
Then he and Schwarzman spent the next 20 minutes talking about Blackstone, and they make it abundantly clear how jealous they were of leveraged buyout king Henry Kravis (at the time, Peterson and Schwarzman were mere advisor types, their looting wealth creating opportunities were far more limited than if they had oddles of investor and bank money to play with).
Well, Pete has taken his looted billions and started the Pete Peterson Foundation:
The Peter G. Peterson Foundation was established in 2008 by Peter G. Peterson, a co-founder of the Blackstone Group. With an endowment of $1 billion, the Peterson Foundation focuses on fiscal sustainability issues related to federal deficits, entitlement programs, and tax policies.
Of course, here’s what Pete really cares about:
Through the Medicare and Social Security programs, we have made promises (as of September 30, 2009) to pay out benefits to eligible recipients in the future, with $38.2 trillion in unfunded commitments to Medicare and $7.7 trillion in unfunded commitments to Social Security.
And a throwaway line for the peasants:
Pete has put his money where his mouth is. If the necessary reforms are adapted to address this problem, Pete will certainly see his own taxes raised. A proponent of fiscal discipline for decades and co-founder of the nonpartisan Concord Coalition in 1992, he believes the wealthy should pay higher taxes and forego government-subsidized benefits they don’t need.
Thanks Pete! You should feel free to add a little extra into your payments to the IRS, and if you want to forego Medicare and Social Security, that’s just fine with me. Pete’s been trundling around the country waving the banner of the catastrophe that is represented by the Federal debt (including the 38.2 trillion in supposed Medicare and Social Security liabilities).
With that as prologue, Pete Peterson seems to have infected the body politic with the idea that the Federal deficit and debt is some massive problem that needs to be dealt with now, NOW Dammit!
Think about this. More people rate the Federal Government Debt as an “extremely serious” threat than rate our wars in the middle east, global warming!, unemployment, and healthcare costs (BTW health care inflation is the reason for that 38.2 Trillion Pete whines about). AFEP asks, “What the fuck is wrong with you people?” Yves Smith notes what is really going with this marketing campaign:
It would appear the ground has been laid rather effectively for (among other things) an assault on Social Security and Medicare. As we have pointed out before, Social Security is not under any immediate stress, and it would take only some minor tweaks to alleviate the (well off in the future) strains. And contrary to popular perception, the reason Medicare spending will get out of hand is due to projected medical cost escalation, not demographics. In other words, the “crisis” in Medicare is a symptom of our broken health care system, and not an entitlements problem per se. But in addition to the continued ability of Big Pharma and the health insurance industry’s ability to make a bad situation worse, as witness our healthcare “reform,” consumers have also been deeply conditioned to see more treatment as better.
I think what is really going one is even more perverse. The reason people are obsessing about levels of federal debt is because they are analogizing it to their own situation. In essence, “I have a ton of debt and I’m fucked. Must be true for the federal government too!” Ironic! The banksters manage to lever up households, destroy the economy, gain free rein over the public fisc, and then they set up “public policy” foundations designed to strip people of the last of their social safety net. Impressive, and nice work if you can get it!
Naomi Klein calls this “Disaster Capitalism,” and maybe it is (haven’t read the Shock Doctrine). But at a minimum its misdirection. The problem is household debt (mortgages, student loans, credit cards, car loans, etc.). People know this because that debt is ruining their lives – it IS what is strangling the economy. So people are analogizing from their personal situation to the government’s.
Analogy fail!
Particularly in view of the fact that the 38.2 trillion dollar Medicare liability could be eliminated by getting rid of private insurance and not putting 80-year olds and the terminally ill on ventilators, and Social Security simply by lifting the payroll tax cap (and treating hedge fund “income” as income), this whole issue is perverse. Even if we decided not to do the sensible thing and allow those who are dying to die with the dignity of not have a tube snaked through their nose, a sovereign government with a monopoly on currency issuance cannot go bankrupt!
A sovereign government faces no solvency issues. It also does not have to go through the logic that restricts a household – that logic runs like this – if we spend more than our income now, we have to borrow. To pay the loan back we have to ensure we have revenue (income) in the future. If we borrow too much we will face major corrections in our balance of income and expenditure and we may have to seriously forgo spending later.
That is the logic that the users of the currency have to consider every day. They have to finance every $ they spend and so planning is required to ensure they don’t “blow their credit cards”! But that logic doesn’t apply to a sovereign government. They can spend now (even if they simulataneously issue debt – which I remind you has nothing to do with financing the spending). They can also spend later as well as service and pay back the debt without compromising anything.
I can go bankrupt (and may), you can go bankrupt, but the United States (as long as it’s spending dollars) can’t. Ever. If anything, what the government should do is double the size of the federal debt by writing everyone a check for the amount of their household debt.
This whole federal deficit/debt fetishism is retarded. Really retarded.
Those things that can not continue for ever, don’t. The assumption of permanence is not in line with history. At some point the ability of the US to add new debt will diminish, rapidly. When that happens the 6% inflation fetish of the Keynesian-Ivy establishment will be a happy memory.
The United States must get her house in order. I know you like inflation. I disagree. Best, debt jubilee. To inflate away debts will diminish our standard of living permanently. Balancing the budgets will put us on the path to sustainability, after a period of deep recession.
It is not possible to control inflation. We had a period of dramatic inflation from 97-2007, though in the form of expensive house prices and commodities. Was that good for you? Do you benefit from expensive houses and commodities? All that loose monetary policy/inflation pumped into post-secondary credit. Was that good for you? It sure fucked me.
The US must return to high’ish interest rates to discourage speculative borrowing. Tight capital requirements. Prick the derivatives bubble. The government must run a balanced budget. What we’ve been doing does not work. It papers over the problem until the next blowup, and they’re becoming more frequent and strong.
Beyond that, the financial sector must be reorganized. The idea of “limited purpose banking” would help us a great deal.
Re: social security, medical policy. See Laurence J. Kotlikoff’s interview with FSN:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.php (June 9th).
Not quite sure what you’re getting at, because I agree with a lot of what you’ve written.
“The US must return to high’ish interest rates to discourage speculative borrowing. Tight capital requirements. Prick the derivatives bubble. The government must run a balanced budget.”
I agree with this. But we can’t do it until we’ve wrung the leverage out of the private sector. Now, you can either get rid of that leverage through wage inflation or a debt jubilee – and if it’s done the right way, there is almost no difference between the two.
I even agree that it’s desirable in general for the government to run a balanced budget.
“We had a period of dramatic inflation from 97-2007, though in the form of expensive house prices and commodities.”
I despise this type of inflation. Funneling money through banks to be loaned into existence and backing it with debt is a disaster. It helps the banks and finance sector almost exclusively.
“Beyond that, the financial sector must be reorganized. The idea of “limited purpose banking” would help us a great deal.”
Not sure what “limited purpose banking” is, but I certainly think that the finance sector should be much smaller.
Here is a short paper on limited purpose banking:
http://people.bu.edu/kotlikoff/newweb/The%20Financial%20Fix%20April%202009.pdf
Here are several dozen msm articles on the subject:
http://www.kotlikoff.net/category/op-ed-topics/limited-purpose-banking
“Now, you can either get rid of that leverage through wage inflation or a debt jubilee”
Additionally, you can raise interest rates, collapse the lenders and sell off their assets (our liabilities) at market clearing values, with subsequent haircuts on the face value of the debt.
It will not be possible to create wage inflation exclusively. The public policy framework in the US will direct new credit to 1) housing 2) education 3) heath care. (not an exclusive list).
Yeah, I agree with you on most stuff, but I’m with Pete on this one.
The debt and deficit are totally unsustainable and sure to blow up spectacularly.
You and I probably agree on the solution, to wipe away both private and public debt by devaluation. But I’m sure that opens up a Pandora’s box of other ugly stuff we don’t want to think about.
I’m no fan of hyperinflation. Germany in the 20s and Zimbabwe a few years ago are far from my ideal societies, but I’ll take a few big jolts of inflation if it will spare us from two decades+ of grinding deflation.
Expat:
I dont know where you got the $7 trillion dollar figure for unfunded social security expenditures as the number is actually at $17.7 trillion. Medicare Part A, B, and D total $87 trillion.
http://www.ncpa.org/pub/ba662
The idea that the federal government can double it debt burden because it issues debt in its own currency is absolutely absurd. Ever heard of hyperinflation? Because that is what would happen in the event that the fed debt grew to 26 trillion. Remember, when more dollars chase fewer goods prices increase. Inflation is ALWAYS a monetary phenomenon.
In addition, there just isnt enough dollars to go around in the world to fund such a massive increase in the federal debt. The only way such a idea can become a reality is if the federal reserve engaged in outright monetization of the fed debt to the tune of 13 trillion. When considering that 70% of dollars are held overseas, when foreigners learn of such mismanagement and abuse of our fiat currency, they will sell enmasse. With no bid for the severely diluted dollars, the value of the USD would plummet to the floor.
As a result, Americans would no longer be able to purchase foreign goods as their purchasing power would be decimated. When you also take into consideration the fact that the US runs a trade deficit to the tune of $500 billion per year, it shows that our “service oriented CONsumer economy” would collapse as retailers would no longer be able to purchase foreign made goods as the dollar would no longer have any purchasing power.
It may be true that with the collapse of the currency the nominal value of American debt would be wiped out, but with prices spiraling out of control the poverty that the majority of americans would experience would far outweigh the pain they are currently experiencing. With no manufacturing base left in the US, americans depend on foreign imports. For the last 20yrs americans have reaped the benefit of purchasing products made by foreigners at a very low price due to the VALUE of the dollar. Take away the value of the dollar, the majority of americans would be wiped out.
Be careful what you wish for…
Subprime,
A lot of people including my buddy T-Dub share your concerns about hyperinflation.
But AFEP and I have been going back and forth about trying to devalue in a way that gets the money to the people rather than to the banks — e.g. a monetization-funded tax refund — say give everybody earning under $250K all of their past 5 years of taxes paid back. That would put a lot of money back in the hands of people who need it to extinguish bad debt, and it would bail out the housing market. If the govt doesn’t bail out the housing market they are going to own it all via Fannie and Freddie and FHA.
WC,
By monetizing a “funded tax refund”, all that would happen is (a) debasement of the currency and (b) a simple bailout of the banks as the printed refund would go to pay off the debts to the banks. The only solution is debt default on a widespread scale. All types of debt, whether it be household, consumer, financial, or corporate. The bad debt must be liquidated in order for the US economy to recover. What has happened since the bailout-o-rama is the banks got the bad paper off their balance sheets while households have been left on the hook. There is still time to allow the necessary deflation to occur. However, given how the powers that be have conducted themsleves, it looks as if the harvard, standford, and yale crowd will get the money first while the rest of us will have to scramble for the crumbs which fall off their lunch tables.
A couple points:
JW: “The public policy framework in the US will direct new credit to 1) housing 2) education 3) heath care. (not an exclusive list)”
This is the exact reason that traditional monetary policy is failing. The Fed and Timmeh are trying to reinflate a housing/equity/commodities bubble by the creation of credit. What should happen is that the Fed should print money and give it to people. At that point, once the debts get wiped out, it would likely be inflationary, but the Fed can pull most of the money back out of the system with high interest rates, etc.
Subprime: “By monetizing a “funded tax refund”, all that would happen is (a) debasement of the currency and (b) a simple bailout of the banks as the printed refund would go to pay off the debts to the banks.”
Not true. Well, debasement of the currency is true, but the debts would get wiped out at half (or less) cost, and the Fed could pull some nontrivial percent of the money back out of the system. It’s a bailout of sorts, but certainly not for the banks. It’s the peoples’ bailout!
I think you’re probably right that we are heading down the path of 20 years of deflation and widespread default (hell, if that’s where we’re heading, better to default now, as I’ve written about extensively), but it’s not necessary. We’re not on the gold standard. Over at the Fed, they have the modern day equivalent of a printing press. They just don’t have the balls to use it in a way that actually solves the problem.
expat:
Let me clarify one thing that you said. The solution, in my opinion, is for mass defaults. However, I dont believe that the powers that be will allow this to happen. As you have noticed the 14 month bear market rally has stalled and is starting to roll over. The federal reserve stopped its QE operations on March 31, 2010, with the market topping out 4 weeks later on Apr 26, 2010. Soon after the market fell 14%. In addition, the problems out of EU and China are beginning to unravel. By the fall, liquidity will be so scarce that markets will be tumbling in a frightening manner. If/when the SPX begins to near or even break through the Mar 09 lows the fed will panic and enact QE part II.
Always always keep this fact in mind: trillions of dollars worth of peoples retirements are tied to the markets. Pre-1980 this wasnt the case. So, the lower markets fall the more underfunded private AND public pensions become. So its not just SS and Medicare that are in trouble, but also private/public pensions. Did you see the report that stated that state public pensions are underfunded to the tune of 4 trillion? Thats fucking horrible! If the market does not continue to rise that spells insolvency and disaster for millions of retirees across the country.
With so many promises (funds, credits, pensions) not being able to be fulfilled in real dollars, the only way to satisfy these promises will be in nominal dollars. Historically, when govs find themselves in these types of predicaments, the always devalue. The romans filled gold coins with rocks as the costs of empire strained public finances. We will do the same. Prepare appropriately.
Great conversation by the way!
“The solution, in my opinion, is for mass defaults. However, I dont believe that the powers that be will allow this to happen.”
It’s happening now. Mortgages, credit cards, and student loans all have default rates near record highs. The government is only protecting the creditors/banks, not the people – see my earlier post on what a bailout is and is not.
“If the market does not continue to rise that spells insolvency and disaster for millions of retirees across the country.”
Largely, true.
“With so many promises (funds, credits, pensions) not being able to be fulfilled in real dollars, the only way to satisfy these promises will be in nominal dollars.”
I agree, but the creditor class has such a stranglehold on the apparatus of government, I think it is much more likely that we’ll see a political restructuring a la the Pete Peterson Foundation, rather than any intelligent use of the monetary system to de-lever American households, you know, pre-default and pre-bankruptcy. It’s tragic because it’s going to be just like the 30′s or Japan since about 1990 (not “just like” because history only rhymes), but in either case a humanitarian disaster for tens, perhaps hundreds, of millions.
“Great conversation by the way!”
Thanks. We try.
[...] think that pretty fairly summarizes my feelings toward the founder of Blackrock and world-class asshole that is Peter Peterson, his Foundation, and his pet deficit [...]